have you even read the article? Its not as simple as birth rate - you have to factor in national migration (media city) and international immigration. Then the economic downturn means less parents are able to pay for private education putting more pressue on state schools. Plus Mcr offers enhanced free early years nursery provision compared to other local towns and more sure-start centres etc so maybe more families with young children have moved in from surrounding areas to take advantage of that? Although all of these factors could have been forseen 2-3 yrs ahead