IS there anything more fascinating that the humble statistic?

The air that pub bores breathe, the last resting place of an excitable expostulator, the rigid framework of an A-level essay, there are an infinite number of stats floating in the ether, waiting to be dissipated to an uninformed, uncaring public.

The simple stat is a humble, beautiful thing.

Did you know that, according to various websites:

• One million Americans take up smoking every year.
• Women’s hair is half the diameter of men’s.
• The QE2 moves just 15 centimetres per gallon of fuel.
• More people die in donkey-related accidents than in plane crashes every year.

Of course 80 per cent of you will have forgotten all the above by the end of today, while 10 per cent will erroneously try to recount them to an uninterested partner. ‘Darling, did you know that a million American donkeys were killed in a plane crash last year.’

That’s the problem with stats though, it would sound stupid enough to be true.

To a pragmatic Scot such as Sir Alex Ferguson, stats are unlikely to be a major consideration. While Arsene Wenger is hunched up in front of a dozen tellies watching live feeds from the Algerian reserve leagues, Ferguson is more likely to be settled down with a fine bottle of red wine and a good read – the racing guide perhaps, a lone concession to the obsessive world occupied by his French foe.

Obsessive

As befits a man with a myriad of interests, Ferguson is unlikely to ever feel the need to trawl through a list of past results against the Gunners. As befits a man with far more time and far less money on his hands, yours truly did exactly that and even to a mathematical moron the pattern was instantly apparent.

Every season Arsenal have won the Premiership, every in this instance meaning just two, they have won at Old Trafford.

As I forgot to mention above, stats can be scary. The average human swallows 12 spiders a year in their sleep and if Arsenal win at Old Trafford they have, to date, gone on to win the Premiership crown.

They are both, worryingly, facts.

Both times, Arsenal have won 1-0, both times the goal has come in the second half – the parallels are obvious, so if United lose to a solitary second half goal on Sunday they might as well call Parcel Force and send the gift-wrapped title down to Highbury.

But fear not United fans, Arsenal fans have far more to worry about, and not just because there seems to be a cash pipe line running directly from Highbury to London rivals Chelsea.

If United avoid defeat on Sunday Arsenal will not finish as champions. Nine times United have won or drawn the home meeting with the southern pretenders and eight times they have finished the season as champions, the only time they missed out was in 1995 when Andy Cole’s last day horror-show saw the title loaned out to Blackburn. During that period, United have racked up six wins, including the 6-1 thrashing in 2000, and three draws.

Reasons to be optimistic

Their overall Premiership record against the Gunners is irresistible, with 20 points taken from 11 matches at Old Trafford. The Gunners have continually whinged that despite missing out on the league they have the better players, or that they are the better team in a one-off game. The stats, the glorious stats, show their ascertains up as the lies they truly are.

But what else do the stats show? If the match is early in the season, United finish as champions. Every time it’s finished as a score draw, United have had to some from behind, suggesting that United are far more resilient than the Gunners – a fact that Arsenal’s domestic capitulation last season and general malaise in Europe accedes to. Arsenal have never come from behind to take a point at Old Trafford in Premiership history.

But rules are, of course, there to be broken. Arsenal hinted that they might have added some steel to their play by fighting back in the Community Shield to force penalties.

And then there is the Chelsea factor. In 1995, United beat Arsenal, but still lost the league. Since then, the league has been, for all the posturing of Liverpool, Chelsea and even Newcastle, a two-horse race in which only one of the horses has blinkers. This season, Chelsea could be real contenders.

Three way fight

They might need time to gel, but with Juan Veron, Damien Duff, Hernan Crespo, Adrian Mutu and Joe Cole in their squad they have enough individual brilliance to pull any match out the fire.

For the Blues to rise, United and Arsenal will have to slip and so as clashes with Chelsea take on added importance the traditional title decider inevitably loses some of its sheen.

This season, perhaps more than any other, looks set to be a long haul to the finish. Sunday’s clash is far too early to be crucial, but it does set down a marker for the season and in so close a contest striking the first real blow could prove crucial to both team’s chances.

Will the winners on Sunday finish as Champions? Have your say.

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