IT is still early days, but the great Michael Owen gamble has not yet paid off.

Three months into the season and the three figures who had most riding on his summer move to Old Trafford have reaped little reward.

Sir Alex Ferguson has failed to find someone capable of replacing the goals of Cristiano Ronaldo and Carlos Tevez.

Fabio Capello is still without the world-class poacher to give England that extra dimension at next summer's World Cup.

And Owen, himself, is yet to prove he can rediscover the form that once made him one of the deadliest finishers in Europe.

It is only November, but you suspect that even Owen may have finally given up on his World Cup dream.

When he revealed this month that England did not occupy his thoughts at night, he wasn't joking.

What would be the point?

His exclusion from the 1-0 defeat to Brazil on Saturday appeared to be the final nail in the coffin for his World Cup hopes - and it appears that only a huge reversal of fortune between now and the end of the season can revive his chances of forcing his way into Capello's squad.

The England manager has already suggested that he will take only four strikers to South Africa. And if Owen was finding it hard enough to prove he is among the top five marksmen in the country, he has virtually no chance of being in the top four.

Hopes

It is too soon to totally write off anyone's chances of taking part next summer, but common sense dictates that Owen's only hopes of breaking into Capello's squad revolve around him holding down a regular first-team place at United, while his rivals must go the other way.

Only an alarming loss of form or injury could jeopardise Jermain Defoe's chances of joining Wayne Rooney - while Emile Heskey's main concern is his lack of regular football at Aston Villa.

Peter Crouch, the man most likely to take up the fourth spot in Capello's pool of strikers, appears to be the perfect combination of the manager's ideal forward - a player who can ally aerial and hold-up play with goals.

The problem for Owen is that his rivals don't end there.

Carlton Cole and Gabriel Agbonlahor are also ahead of him in the pecking order, with Capello choosing to look at them more closely than a man who has scored 40 goals in 89 internationals.

Owen now has only one more international match - a friendly in March - with which to stake his claim for next summer's finals. But the bulk of his argument will have to be laid out over the next three months at United - which is where things get tricky.

If Ferguson doesn't even consider him worthy of a regular starting role, why should Capello even entertain the thought of bringing him out of international wilderness?

His stunning last-gasp winner against City has earned him a place in Old Trafford folklore and was a vivid reminder of what a deadly finisher he can be. But it stands out as the only significant highlight of his United career so far.

Arguably only Rooney - of England's other strikers - could have produced such a sublime touch and finish in those circumstances, but even that hasn't been enough to persuade Ferguson to use Owen as more than just a bit part player.

As superb as his Carling Cup strike was against Barnsley, it was largely inconsequential in the greater scheme of things. And while four goals in six starts for United is an impressive statistic, his absence from the starting line-ups to face Arsenal, City, Liverpool and Chelsea tell the true story.

Even with his forward line unusually shot shy - United have scored 23 league goals so far compared with Arsenal, 36, Chelsea, 29 and Liverpool, 27 - Ferguson still doesn't trust Owen in the biggest matches.

Whether that is due to fitness or form is unclear - but if there are question marks about either then Capello simply cannot take the risk of naming him for South Africa.

Scoring

Much can change between now and March and it is hard to imagine Owen not scoring if given a regular run in the team.

But the waters could still get murkier, with Ferguson looking closely at adding more firepower to his squad in January.

David Villa of Valencia is a long-term target, while Wolfsburg's Edin Dzeko is an exciting prospect - even if he is currently talking up a move to AC Milan over his UK suitors.

Owen's England rival, Carlton Cole, has even made it on to Ferguson's radar as he looks for a player capable of providing the goals United have lost in the absence of Ronaldo and Tevez.

A keen follower of the horses, his free move to Old Trafford was a gamble Owen simply had to take if he was to stand any chance of reviving his World Cup dream.

As yet though, there is little sign of it paying off.