THE date: May 7, 2010. The place: Bolton town hall. David Cameron stands on the steps as Britain's new prime minister.
On his left is Susan Williams - former charity worker, face of the victorious anti-congestion charge campaign, and for years Greater Manchester's only female council leader. On his right is Deborah Dunleavy - Bolton-born company director, mum-of-three, and occasional children's football coach.
The two women - young, pragmatic, northern and untainted by Tory failures of the past - are among five Conservative Greater Manchester MPs. They form part of a slim but workable Tory majority of around 30. David Nuttall has taken Bury North; Ben Jeffreys has won Cheadle from the Liberal Democrats.
Mr Cameron begins: "We have broken through in the great towns and cities of the north. The country has given us a mandate for change."
Unlikely? According to the latest opinion polls - with the Conservatives on 41 per cent, Labour on 30 per cent, and the Lib Dems on 17 per cent - that is precisely the scene that will greet the nation in just over seven months' time.
But what happens next?
Labour and Lib Dems will tell you that a Conservative government would be disastrous for Greater Manchester - particularly at a time of economic strife. Spending cuts would be deeper, they say, and would be disproportionately felt in poorer areas.
The Conservatives counter that despite Labour's spending, the inequalities persist. In some ways they are worse than ever. Provisional GCSE results released this week show Manchester is still one of the bottom 10 local authorities in the country. In two wards in Salford - Pendleton and Ordsall - people live, on average, more than 22 years less than those in the most affluent parts of the country.
Thus the Conservatives speak of a completely different approach - smaller government, less top-down intervention, a `bonfire of the quangoes', more devolution of money and power. But the worries remain. Isn't `smaller government' just code for cuts? Doesn't `less top-down intervention' mean letting the market decide who wins and, more importantly, who loses?
Image
It isn't just a question of policy. For many people in Greater Manchester, the Tories have an image problem. Yes, they may have more young, female, black and Asian candidates. But at the very top, more than half the shadow cabinet went to public schools in the south. Can the Tories really claim to understand the northern cities?
It doesn't help the Conservatives when Chris Grayling speaking of an `urban war' in Moss Side, where gun crime has actually fallen by 82 per cent. It doesn't help when Boris Johnson stands in the old G-Mex and says: "If you want to stimulate the Manchester economy, you invest in London, my friend."
David Cameron knows all about the doubts. He has spent a huge amount of effort addressing them. He has visited the region more than any Tory leader in recent history. He brought his party conference here for the first time in more than a century. He has ring-fenced health spending. And he was at pains to point out to me recently: "A successful Manchester helps a successful London, and vice-versa."
In terms of the Conservatives' likely manifesto, there is much for Greater Manchester to like. The Tories were the first to commit to high-speed rail, linking Manchester with London - at the expense of the planned third runway at Heathrow.
They would allow democratically-elected councillors to take over the budgets of the regional development agencies. That wasn't previously an issue in the north west. Now, though, there is a growing sense the NWDA spends too much in rural areas and too little building Manchester's position as the economic engine of the region.
Perhaps it won't matter that much in the end. Greater Manchester has proved in the past it can work with governments of all stripes. The regeneration of the city - the building of the Bridgewater Hall, the transformation of Hulme - started with the Conservatives in Number 10. Private companies have flooded to Manchester because of a savvy, flexible and proactive city council, not because of Tony Blair or Gordon Brown.
What will Greater Manchester look like under a Conservative government in 2015? No one can be sure. But it becomes less of a rhetorical question with every passing day.
Read David Ottewell's Politics blog
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Showing comments 1 to 10 and replies | View All
Boba Fett, Stockport (20/10/2009 at 11:29)
FromTheNorth, Whitefield (20/10/2009 at 12:49)
Dunleavy has been ubiquitous in Bolton NE for some time now, but not only is she up against an extremely effective constituency politician in David Crausby (who was also a shop steward in a local manufacturer), but she also runs the risk of people getting bored of her long before they reach the ballot box.
Equally close is Bolton SE. While Labour's Yasmin Qureshi could appeal to the seat's large Asian population, it could also be a cynical move that backfires. After all, the excellent Brian Iddon held a comfy majority, and do they want a London-based barrister and human rights adviser? But will they go for the Tories' offering of Cllr Andy Morgan, who may be tainted because he is part of a council that has been so heavily criticised in recent years? Of the three seats, I would argue that Morgan stands the best chance, but it will certainly be a fascinating yardstick at the next election. Can't wait.
Englisc Stannes, North Manchester (20/10/2009 at 13:07)
Ran Droid, Manchester (20/10/2009 at 13:08)
What, exactly, is the problem with some cuts? The bald facts are the size of the state sector is hugely detrimental to the state of the UK - it is, for example, why we're having to run up so much debt, which will be repayable sometime in the future, meaning less investment in the future.
It is also the reason why the poor are taxed so highly, a smaller government will mean - eventually - less taxation, and the ability to finally end the benefits trap and make lower paid work translate into greater take-home cash.
I do not expect the Tories to be brilliant, not with Blair 2.0 at the helm, but I expect them to be better than Labour, although once the smoke and mirrors of the last 12 years are cast aside, that's not a terribly high bar to set.
Seemingly Ignored, Heald Green (20/10/2009 at 13:18)
The article amused me, particulalry your reference to public school. How many leading Noo Labourites went to fancy schools - in the south?
padb, Gtr. Manchester (20/10/2009 at 16:08)
silver-fox, Chorlton (20/10/2009 at 16:34)
BluePurgatory, Manchester (20/10/2009 at 18:16)
griffin, stockport (20/10/2009 at 19:07)
If people in Pendleton & Ordsall live, on average, 22 years less than those in most affluent parts of the country then, as the national life expectancy is 77.3 for a male (for females it's 81.5), most men in Pendleton & Ordsall would be dead by 58.
Ergo : you cannot firmly state that gun crime in Moss Side has fallen by 82%.
There are statistics, and there are ........................................................
The first Party to promise to cut public expenditure on wasteful projects, including the NWDA. cut the benefits bill, cut the number of immigrants, increase prison places (and fill them), etc., etc.
In other words, impliment the list of what the vast majority of people in this country wish will get my vote.
Knowall, stretford end (20/10/2009 at 22:23)
The third runway scrapage is about votes in the south and good hunting ground for the tories, plus anybody remember Major unelected by the country until he had to go to the polls in May 1992 and surprised everyone by winning it, also remember it is the Tory Backers and biggest donors the Banks whos recklessness led to the recession and the government having to bale them out and do nothing as Bandwagon first suggested. The do nothing approach would have put 15m on the dole as all the loans were called in by the banks creditors and 8m homeless as mortgages would also have been called in by the creditors, but the Tory shadow cabinet would have not noticed due to their own personal wealth.
Better the devil in red than the tory who would see the north dead.