M.E.N Poll: Clegg effect has Lib Dems surging ahead

David Ottewell

May 03, 2010

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The Liberal Democrats could be set for a huge general election surge in Greater Manchester.

An exclusive MEN poll reveals that, of nearly 1,000 readers, 39.4 per cent plan to back the party on Thursday - compared to 31.6 pc for Labour and 29.0 pc for the Conservatives.

Crucially, 41 per cent voted for Labour in 2005 - with the Lib Dems on just 23.1 pc and the Tories on 18.1 pc. Such huge swings would see the Lib Dems make gains in such traditional Labour strongholds as Manchester Gorton, Stockport and Salford and Eccles - with the likes of Gerald Kaufman and Hazel Blears losing their seats.

Our poll, reveals that the 'Clegg bounce' in the polls after the TV debates appears to have firmed up into genuine support.

By contrast Gordon Brown emerged as an electoral liability for Labour - with 28.9 pc of people saying they would be more likely to vote for the party under a different leader.

Mr Clegg was far more popular - with only 4.6 pc more like to support the Lib Dems under someone else, and 25.6 pc less likely. Mr Cameron, despite his perception as a major asset for the Conservatives, provoked a neutral response - with 13.3 pc saying they were more likely to vote for the Tories under someone else, and 12.6 pc less likely.

The poll - has been running since April 26 and gathered 934 responses from across the region. It showed Mr Clegg won a clear and potentially vital victory in the televised leaders debates.

There were some glimmers of hope for Mr Brown as he tries to head off an election catastrophe for Labour.

A total of 44.4 pc of respondents said he was the most 'prime ministerial' of the three main leaders - ahead of Mr Cameron (37.4 pc) and Mr Clegg (18.3 pc). But the Lib Dem leader was seen as the most likeable by a massive 72.1 pc of people.

He was also seen as the most trustworthy, scoring 36.9 pc cent ahead of Mr Brown (36.2 pc) and Mr Cameron (26.8 pc).

Labour will also take some heart from the fact 8.6 pc of people said they were still 'undecided' about their vote.

And crucially - with polls still pointing towards a hung parliament - Lib Dem voters said they would prefer an alliance with Labour than the Conservatives.

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thoughtful, East of Manchester (03/05/2010 at 09:56)

Those figures are very odd 39.4 + 31.6 + 29.0 = 100
So out of all the people polled there were no undecided voters? No one who said they weren't going to vote at all, or people voting for minority parties like BNP Respect UKIP etc etc.

On that basis I think I'll have to take this poll with a large pinch of salt!

Esso Blue (03/05/2010 at 10:35)

All said and done, a party that wants real change will only make headway if they are in power; winning local seats here and here won't change anything.

Sometimes it makes you wonder if in the long run the human race is on a collision course for doom. Its a mishmash of chaos.

Breezeblock, Manchester (03/05/2010 at 11:39)

If Clegg is the most likeable, thank God I'm not standing, I'd walk it !!

brian stephen airley (03/05/2010 at 12:16)

If you want to join the EURO & give our taxes to countries like Greece who are bankrupt you are raving mad so go on ,vote for the Liberal loonies !!!!!!!!!!!

J.Hall, Tameside (03/05/2010 at 12:53)

So the MEN reports with its headlines that the Lib/Dems are "surging ahead" now wasn`t it only last week after years of supporting Labour and the MP`s in the Greater Manchester Area,the Guardian Media Group in Greater Manchester decalred its total support for Clegg and the Lib/Dems.
So are we now seeing our local media spinning us away from supporting the Conservatives and Labour Partyand " making headlines to promote the very party its now supporting".
So who will David Ottewell MEN`s Chief Political Correspondent be voting for,well lets ask him to see if my suspicions are correct ?? (ED's note: The MEN is no longer part of the Guardian Media Group - it became part of Trinity Mirror some weeks ago)

Tooomy, Southport (03/05/2010 at 13:06)

agree with brian stephen - Remember IF YOU vote for the LDs just because you don't like the other two you may actually get a Lib Dem in power.
Cleggy is richer and posher than cameron, always had a senior pen pusher/politico job (as opposed to a REAL one) and his front bench is all male and all white - something different?

Andrew Rankine (03/05/2010 at 13:16)

A vote for the Liberal Democrats is definitely NOT a wasted vote.... however a vote for more of the same definitely is a wasted vote .... its time for a change...lets get out of the see saw politics that Labour and Conservatives have given us over the last 65 yrs..... if you want genuine change, there is only one party that will deliver it and that is the Liberal Democrats...

MPs gravy train, UK (03/05/2010 at 14:01)

Brian Airley - the Lib Dems won't join the Euro. Stop scaremongering you fool. They have said they would only join the Euro if they felt it was right and the people voted for it in a referrendum. It won't happen in the next 5 years. We have too much debt ourselves to join the Eurozone.

I want a change in our politics. I am fed up with politicians running my life and spending more and more of my money. Its very easy to spend somebody elses money. And look where it has got us under Labour. Given current annual borrowing needs the country will owe £1.3 trillion by the end of the next parliament. Thats as much as our annual GDP. We will be paying for Gordon Brown for 20 years or more and people still think we should trust him to manage the country.

ebble, manchester (03/05/2010 at 14:05)

Mr Cameron will be pleased.

tony (03/05/2010 at 14:58)

The old-gang parties have all sold us out to the EU superstate. Look at wage levels now that millions are allowed to move here from other EU countries. Big business bosses loved Blair for allowing mass immigration and the subsequent profits of using cheap foreign labour. We need to leave this institution asap. I voted for Blair way back hoping that things 'can only get better', look at us now! A basket case alongside Greece, Ireland and Spain. I was going for UKIP, not now after its own party leader was out campaigning for the Tories in Somerset, so much for the two UKIP candidates work in the area eh!!?? BNP it is now as I want to send a message to get our troops out of Afghhanistan.

Andanotherthing, Mcr (03/05/2010 at 15:12)

The future is orange !

Esso Blue. Round and round the garden like a messed up bear, one step, two step, what can we do with that under there. (03/05/2010 at 15:29)

My view is that if Britain didn't go into europe they would become a red dwarf and implode. While in Europe they can snuggle up with friends. Britain without europe would become a drifting ship. If you sell technology off then you have to expect trouble. My view is that by entering into europe you are making a statement that all is not good.

Also,If we didn't have nuclear weapons we would be sunk by now.

Johny M, Longsight (03/05/2010 at 16:12)

Unfortunately for some, this beauty contest actually comes down to voting for a candidate in a constituency. So whatever the party figures, when faced with a choice between the much loved and trusted (notwithstanding the telly, pen, rug, grapefruit bowls and "slum") Gerald Kaufman who answers letters and champions Palestine, as well as ID cards and a whole range of Labour repressive causes, and the incredible claims of Qasim Afzal (24/7 eMP, school-run sharer, PhD student, international businessman) I know who I would vote for!

Peter Cookson (03/05/2010 at 16:21)

Please re-assure me that this is a scientific survey, and not a self-selecting poll of the type that Bob Worcester of Mori dismisses as 'voodoo polls', something no better than the the ancient Roman practice of divining the future by examning animal entrails.
I really hope that the MEN is not peddling trashy tabloid gutter journalism now that it has a new owner.

pod the red, manchester (03/05/2010 at 16:33)

well if you want us to give up our defence and law making + taxes to the real expenses kings of drivell in europe a vote for the lib dems is about the right thing to. BUT if you want a party to lead us out of this depression vote LABOUR

David Cameron's Lucky Pants, on the steps of No 10! (03/05/2010 at 17:07)

God help us if the Lib Dems get any say so.

Vote Tory - Vote for change!

Chris R (03/05/2010 at 21:13)

Labour is a spent force... the Lib Dems now offer the most progressive policies, I'm finished with Labour sorry!

Esso Blue (03/05/2010 at 21:25)

Vote Labour - To stay clear of the shackles and whips. Show who is in control and go against the grain of what they want. Change will only come when you see through their blue/red/orange haze.

ENGINEER, Heywood (03/05/2010 at 23:58)

Pod The Red. vote labour who do you think contributed to the massive debt this country owes, LABOUR, who said we would have a vote on European treaty, but lied Labour, how can a party that has always taken the country into debt whenever they have been in power lead us out of it.

As for the liberals if peole think labour has been soft on crime just wait if the liberals get a say we will have more on the street, and they will take us into the euro they have said so. at least labour and tory have said they won't no matter the circumstances.

The People's Prosecutor, Manchester (04/05/2010 at 07:58)

This is't the first time I've seen the poll on the right change without any obvious reason. The last time I posted about it, my post wasn't published. It's not the Lib Dems that I'm worried about, it's the Fascists. (Editors' Note: Your post was published - along with an explanation from us that the poll had been launched again from scratch for the final week of the campaign)

Donnie Tobasco, Rochdale (04/05/2010 at 08:53)

Any other Rochdalians on here know how inept and useless the lib dems are after 5 years of absolutely zero positive actions. So on this alone i could never vote for these buffoons.

Cleggs immigration policy is completely laughable. To allow illegals who have managed to hide here a certain amount of years citizenships is complete joke, this then allows them to bring more family members over.

fran67, levenshulme (04/05/2010 at 09:00)

Lib Dems - and cuts and more cuts. Doesn't matter which one 'wins', they'll all do the same.

David Cameron's Lucky Pants, on the steps of No 10! (04/05/2010 at 09:14)

Anything but admit Conservatives are ahead eh MEN?

Idroid, city centre (04/05/2010 at 13:38)

(Cleggs immigration policy is completely laughable. To allow illegals who have managed to hide here a certain amount of years citizenships is complete joke, this then allows them to bring more family members over.)

Blame the Conservatives and Labour for this Immigration mess, if you think it's one .
Nick is simply trying to come up with a solution, while the other two have no alternative solution, other than to carry on pretending they don't exist and to let them live here illegally,with a slim chance of ever being caught.
You're left with the same result whoever comes to power, only under the Lib scheme, some of them would be eligible to remain here and pay their way like everyone else and some people who come forward, won't fit the criteria for legal status and will be sent back home. Under the Conservatives and Labour, they would all still be on the run.
We have no idea at present how many are illegal, where they are from and how they are surviving.
That's ridiculous. I don't agree with more family members being eligible to come here on the back of them, but giving the people already here Citizenship has to be the only solution available, because the other two parties haven't come up with any alternative solutions to the problems they both created.

Laura Norder, Didsbury (04/05/2010 at 15:00)

"Anything but admit Conservatives are ahead eh MEN?" - David Cameron's Lucky Pants, on the steps of No 10

When in doubt, whip a conspiracy theory out, eh?

Are you and Moorlok in the same ward at the 'puzzle factory'?

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