The election is on a knife-edge in our region – and tonight’s historic leaders’ debate in Manchester is set to decide the outcome.
Those are the key findings of a major online poll carried out by the M.E.N. on the eve of the three-way showdown.
Our survey found nearly half of voters –42.7 per cent – say the debate WILL have a bearing on how they vote.
With Labour and the Conservatives virtually neck-and-neck across the region, a strong performance tonight could tip the balance.
Click here for our interactive General Election section
Our poll – which gathered nearly 700 votes from virtually every constituency in Greater Manchester – put Labour on 32.5pc, the Conservatives on 30.5pc, and the Liberal Democrats on 20.2pc.
But in a major blow for Gordon Brown, David Cameron was seen – just – as the best potential prime minister from among the ‘big three’. The Tory leader polled 39.2pc to 39pc for Mr Brown and 21.8pc for the Lib Dems’ Nick Clegg.
That suggests Mr Brown – who draws his strength from his party – might have the most to gain from a strong performance in the debate, while Mr Cameron – whose party draws strength from him – might have the most to lose.
The economy emerged as the most important issue for our readers, with 60.7pc deeming it ‘vital’. It was followed by crime (47.4pc), health (45.9pc) and education (39.2pc). Anti-social behaviour was next (38.8pc), then immigration (37.4pc) with Afghanistan (15.6pc) trailing behind.
Mr Brown emerged as the most trusted leader on health, education and – crucially – the economy. Mr Cameron was ahead on immigration – by a wide margin – as well as crime and anti-social behaviour.
Among young people, Labour were further ahead overall, with 43.9pc of 18-24 year-olds saying they intended to vote for the party.
The Conservatives were on 26.3pc and the Lib Dems on 22.8pc.
But 36.4pc of youngsters identified Mr Cameron as the best potential PM, compared to 34.5pc for Mr Brown and 29.1pc for Mr Clegg.
There was better news for Mr Brown among women voters. Some 41.9pc said he would make the best PM, with Mr Cameron behind on 38.4pc and Mr Clegg on 19.7pc.
Mr Clegg told the M.E.N. the findings did not mean he would not be ‘going for broke’ at the debate tonight.
He said: “I will not play it safe. I don’t think people will vote based only on what they see at the debates.
“I think they will still look at the manifestos, they’ll still watch television and still read the papers and leaflets.”
The first TV election debate takes place on ITV1 at 8.30pm - we'll have live coverage and local reaction on this website tonight
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The economy is very important. A world recession dragged us into it but Labour has dragged us out of it; so I think it would be unfair if Labour didn't have the chance to finish what they started. Labour have done all the hard work.
"I think it would be unfair if Labour didn't have the chance to finish what they started"
what bankrupting the counrty?
Esso Blue: "The economy is very important. A world recession dragged us into it but Labour has dragged us out of it;"
Dragged us out of it? Have you seen any of the figures? We've got a larger budget deficit than Greece! They've dragged us out of it in the same way that someone might drag you out of a hangover by giving you a bottle of Scotch as a hair of the dog. It might stop the pain today, but it will hurt massively tomorrow.
"so I think it would be unfair if Labour didn't have the chance to finish what they started. Labour have done all the hard work."
In some respects I agree. They deserve to have the pain occur on their watch. Unfortunately, allowing them to continue with their extreme illiberalism is too big a price to pay for that.
"A world recession dragged us into it but Labour has dragged us out of it" Esso Blue
You need your bumps feeling. That is the single strangest comment I have ever read on this site (and there is some serious competition). If you are unable to see the contribution that Gordon Brown had to the severity of the recession in the country, then it is worrying that you are allowed to vote.
if you think some babbling idiots is going to sway the population they are mistaken, they all pee in the pot.
Surprise surprise, the MEN's poll put Labour ahead. God help us if it's true. This country cannot stand another 5 years of misrule.
There's not a ha'porth of difference between the so called three main parties policies. That's why voting percentages since WW2 have declined.Is a 3 party system three times more democratic than a one party system ?
Esso Blue.............If you want Labour to 'finish what it started', then God help us all. They have systematically wrecked this country in the time they have been in power. We now have a lower standing in International affairs than at any time in our history. They took us into an illegal war, costing many thousands of lives, and told lies as to the reasons for doing so. It's no good Bungler Brown keep bragging about how much they've spent on the NHS or any other department, because we have the biggest national debt in our history, and the recession hit us harder because of his crass decisions when Chancellor of the Exchequer - some of which he now admits, hoping for 'credit' in doing so. No wonder Tony Blair legged it at the first opportunity. He actually saw the writing on the wall - despite promising to serve a full term in office. Another Labour lie, along with the promised Europe referendum, which was in their last manifesto. Anything involving Peter Mandelson needs to be treated with great suspicion. A minister who has had to TWICE resign because of improper conduct. Vote Labour at your peril. Mandelson is simply waiting for his opportunity to step into brown's shoes. I wouldn't turn my back on him. Give Labour another chance? You're having a laugh, surely !!?
On Sky TV Eamonn Holmes summed it up perfectly....When Adam Boulton described it as 90 minutes that could change everything..Holmes reply,'It's the Derby'.
Am voting for Conservative this time as it just cant get any worse than the mess Labour has put this country into!!
As for 90mins of football, Utd will spank City this weekend.
only a fool says they are all the same.we should not have to pay anymore for gordon & tonys mistakes and euro dreams.Fuel,unemployed youth,damaged construction industry,immigration,benefit system & continued health care reforms to cover up previous faults in Labour policy.We are becoming a dumping ground for europes immigration problems(why do you think france is banning muslim headwear,to push more people on our overstretched country and damaged economy.)Mismanagement of bank bailout(we just paid their bonus).not to mention public sector pensions that the so called socialists end up with more at the cost of the majority,while stealing our private pension pots and giving a paltry state pension to the many who have worked hard all their lives to cover early retirement plans and earnings related pensions for these so called socialist idealists or they nwill strike and take it out on the people......get rid of labour,fix their mistakes then start again on a fair for all system..I FEEL ONLY CAMERONS PARTY CAN DO THAT,WE ALL HAD IT GOOD BEFORE LABOUR CAME TO POWER, NOW ONLY THE CHEATS AND LIARS PROSPER...
STRETFORDIAN: "only a fool says they are all the same."
I tend to agree that they aren't all the same - they are very, very slightly different.
No one was complaining when the boom years came. You have to take the rough with the smooth. I would say that there isn't many Governments in the world that don't have a crazy gang behind them and are full of delusions of grandure; Maybe they did get it wrong with Iraq maybe they didn't but I think Sadman may have had long term plans.
Everyone talks about illegal this illegal that but they don't do anything about it and will only change their vote to a similar structure. Maybe some people need to grow some cojones and get rid of the quivering lip and point the finger where it should be.
Everybody talks the talk but they will never walk the walk. Some people need to grow up.
Money talks and bull***t walks.
Esso Blue: "No one was complaining when the boom years came."
Some of us were pointing out that it was unsustainable, but that's beside the point.
During the boom years, Brown wasn't shy of claiming all the credit for the debt and house price bubble fuelled boom when it came. If he felt that he so richly deserved all the credit for the boom, then by the same reasoning, he deserves all the condemnation for the bust. As you said:
"You have to take the rough with the smooth."
Black Flag,
15/04/2010 at 15:20
There is no point in arguing about a capitalist system. The idea is you are in it to win it but unfortunatley there is always the fall guy. Education across the nation without the dehydration.
Black Flag: "There is no point in arguing about a capitalist system."
What on earth are you talking about?
And lets no forget, Labour has admitted mistakes and they should be credited for that. Labour will have learnt from their mistakes. And how much of what we consider mistakes are actually outside conspiracies to bring them down?. How many booms and busts are going to happen in the next hundred years; Its the same cycle over and over again and it doesn't matter whether its the BNP TCP KFC Labour Mc Donalds or whatever.
The thing that you have to really look at is, is there any potential for the powers that be give fair justice in the long run which relates to people with too much power getting a slap wrist by the people rather than the in-house silliness that goes on, a little more freedom of expression and some genuine logical reasoning rather than going round the houses and the public forever being muppets including me.. Its about the people changing the structures for the better in a lot of areas. Fairness isn't all about payouts for wrongs but more of getting rid of the negative mental structures that are in place. How many people in systems get it wrong because they want to and how much is payed out of the taxpayers money because of what they do because they want to.
Clear out the dead wood, clean the system and the taxpayer will save billions.
Esso Blue
"No one was complaining when the boom years came. You have to take the rough with the smooth"
I was, and certainly others were unhappy about the housing boom and the way Government policy contributed to it.
Sadly the ones who took the smooth during the boom seem to be doing fine now, while those getting the rough currently (or are being lined up for some post election) seem to be the ones who missed out on the smooth.
" No one was complaining when the boom years came. " Esso Blue
No, they weren't complaining. Nor were they putting some money aside for a rainy day, because guess what? Gordon Brown had single-handedly achieved the impossible by abolishing boom and bust, and made sure he told us about it at every available opportunity. The good times were here to stay, and public and private spending accordingly rocketed to record levels.
Remind me what happened next?
Esso Blue: "And lets no forget, Labour has admitted mistakes and they should be credited for that. Labour will have learnt from their mistakes."
I'll give them credit for admitting mistakes if they have, but to be honest, I've really not seen them admit to anything meaningful.
As for learning, exactly the opposite seems to be happening. We've experienced the negative effects of a debt and house price bubble and they've responded by pushing banks to lend more money and trying to force up house prices. They're trying to create exactly the same conditions that lead to a recession. To be clear, I'm not just pointing the finger at Labour on that one. I think the Tories would have done much the same.
"How many booms and busts are going to happen in the next hundred years"
The land price cycle tends to work on an 18 year cycle, so probably about 5, with another 5 minor recessions mid-cycle.
"Its the same cycle over and over again"
Yes it is, which is why it is so pitiful that no government has taken the necessary steps to stop it.
Which planet are you in Essoblue?
I'm not on any benefits or employed by the state. I'm one of the ever smaller majority who pays cash into the system rather than one of the ever growing minority which lives on the cash others have paid in.
Whatever Gordon Brown says tonight I won't be voting for a man who shared responsibility for the most wasteful and reckless years of public spending this country has ever seen.
Let those who have benefitted from that spending vote for him, and there are plenty of them - people doing non-jobs at town halls and on quangos, those who get 'incapacity benefit' just because they are too fat or can't be bothered to work, and the ever growing number of public sector workers who Gordon's bribed with years of inflation busting pay rises.
tiggerluc, somewhere in shaw
15/04/2010 at 16:32
Like you don't know.
So the MEN poll suggests Labour will win,well reading the various Constituency Profiles on the MEN web-site,my opinion is that a bias is shown towards Labour,so who wrote the regional proflies,well I`ve asked 3 times without an answer,so can the media influence the voters
with carefully selected words,thats up to you to observe.
Whether it be Murdoch trying to influence the Election or local media indicating its leanings,its time the media was issued with a list of controls which ensure the Electorate have a really impartial media at this crucial time for the UK,with no bias from Editors,Reporters or Columnists,because we the public have no facility for questioning the political parties seeing that they deliberately removed the open forum pre election meetings in your own Constituencies,which protects MP`s from having to answer
challenges to their rhetoric.
We are constantly having our democratic rights removed which results in those elected, not being fully and openly challenged or questioned,yet allowing the media to ask all "their questions" which may not reflect what we want to know,hence our increasing role as puppets in the democrtatic process,which can easily create Dictatorships.
For instance has anyone noticed any references to the misleading and manipulated Iraq War,which has been conveniently buried in this election.
The "debate" between Curly, Larry and Moe shouldn't influence the general election outcome if the voters understood their electoral system - but fewer and fewer seem to realise this isn't an American Presidential election. This is the first UK General Election run for the benefit of the TV and print media not the voters. TV and the papers have commentators like other people have mice. All the prattle by "experts" shouldn't mean a thing. If I were a candidate running for a constituency here I would be mightily p.o.ed that the telly and papers promote the idea that the electors vote "for Curly, Larry or Moe" and not for the constituency MP. Time to kick the party whips into touch and make the individual MP responsible to his/her electors.