Q. Have the wheels come off Manchester's commercial property boom?

Richard Hamilton, property partner at Manchester law firm Davis Blank Furniss
MAYBE There has undoubtedly been a feelgood factor surrounding Manchester as a city over the last few years, which has extended to the commercial
property market. Look out of any window and a construction site will be in view. The question now is: can we still see the workmen's hard hats bobbing
around on site? It is clear that commercial property investors are shying away from bulk buying of residential apartments, but the canny commercial
property investors are still looking for the right deal on commercial sites and properties. It is our experience that the relationship managers of major
banking institutions with a substantial presence in Manchester are still inundated with new requests. Much will depend over the next few months on
the willingness of lenders to finance purchase and development opportunities.

Nick Rhind, managing director of internet agency CTI Support Network
NO We are a growing team based in the Northern Quarter and would like to remain in the area as we expand. I have got to say  that initial inquiries
about potential new offices show that landlords are not in a position to compromise at present. There is no sign of a commercial property downturn.
However, I think part of the issue of high prices is that the stock is limited in scope. If this is not resolved, companies like ours might have to look
elsewhere, which would be an own goal for the commercial property sector in Manchester. Then the wheels might come off.

PeterFlemming, head of property at Manchester law firm Ralli
MAYBE There's no doubt that there has been a slowdown in the commercial property market in the city. However, we must get this into context.
Manchester has been outstripping every other city outside London for the last 10 years in terms of commercial property growth.
Developers are renegotiating deals they struck 12 months ago and some of my clients are biding their time. But there are always deals to be
done if people have got cash behind them.

Ross Wellman, real estate partner at law firm Halliwells 
NO Do not confuse the current issues in the city centre residential market with Manchester's commercial property market. The development of
new commercial property is on the back of the general growth of Manchester as a commercial city over the last 10 years or so. Those
organisations that are not highly leveraged will be able to take advantage of the more realistic prices

Neil Cadwallader, barrister and mediator, Exchange Chambers
YES My impression is that the commercial property boom in Manchester was over some months ago; the question now is whether the market has hit
bottom or not. I doubt it, myself, though there does seem to be something of a boom among property lawyers, with many moves among solicitors.
I expect the shake-out to result in a lot of disputes.

Martin Portnoy, head of real estate at Ernst & Young in Manchester 
NO Not yet. Investors are playing safe and there is reluctance to transact. In the short term, most players in the sector are taking a 'wait and see approach'.
We expect to see a further softening of prices and an increase in vacancies – the biggest issue this year.

Stephanie Mullenger, director at the Manchester office of real estate agency Colliers CRE 
NO The brakes are on but the wheels have definitely not come off. In the past 18 months, the office stock in Manchester has grown by  five per cent and
stands at 16.2m sq ft. However, with 1m sq ft of new stock due this year, there is a concern over demand. While some schemes have let well, the majority
of buildings are still fully available.

Nick Jackson
NO Commercial property in Manchester is buoyant, because of the financial and professional services sector and the digital media industry. The
Mediacity:uk site at Salford Quays and Manchester city centre's expanding business district are the two main ingredients – quality Grade A space
and regeneration projects are also important factors.

Simon Wood, director of investment at CB Richard Ellis 
NO There are two ways of looking at the current market: doom and gloom, or a return to a more realistic way of doing business. We are still seeing a
market for office, industrial and retail property in Manchester, albeit one which is a lot quieter than this time last year.

David McKee, managing partner, chartered surveyors Stevens Scanlan, Manchester 
NO The Greater Manchester commercial property market is certainly not faring worse than other regions of the country. There is no doubt the credit
crunch is causing difficulties for owner-purchasers and investors wanting to raise finance. Other potential property investors have adopted a wait-and-see
attitude. Whether this pause is for six months, or longer, depends entirely on the speed with which the national and world economies recover.

Robert Moss, regional senior partner at law firm Beachcroft
NO There is no doubt that the whole property market has been affected by the credit crunch. The lack of certainty has damaged confidence. This can be
seen in the number of development projects which are simply not being implemented. However, we have seen steady activity on the investment front.
The banks are still keen to lend to the right purchaser on the right property at the right price, and a number of our clients are busy seeking out the right
opportunity.

Jonathan Mills, head of Jones Lang LaSalle's Manchester office  
MAYBE The market has received a much-predicted correction in terms of values. Unlike in previous downturns, this has been seen quickly, which we
view as beneficial for the long-term health of the market. Investors remain in the market although they are very cautious. In our view, the correction in
property  values reflects the continued uncertainty in the capital markets, as opposed to significant concerns over tenant demand, with occupier
fundamentals remaining buoyant, particularly within Manchester city centre.

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